What do polls like the recent Times/Siena poll really mean?

Commentary

And, a year out, should you worry?

Two days ago, I posted a story about the results of a Times/Siena poll of battleground states, What does the 137th episode of Seinfeld and the latest Times/Siena poll have in common? *The poll painted a doomsday scenario for Democrats: Trump beating Biden not only on the overall question, “who would you vote for,” but in several important issues that, in today’s world, count heavily – the economy, national security and the Israel/Hamas conflict.

*There is a chance that you did not see that post. If you didn’t, here’s why. Several months ago I began advertising Around the Block through a program that my site host offers. While I have many subscribers to this blog, my goal was to see if I could increase my audience beyond those regular subscribers. This was not an attempt to make money. In fact, not only do I pay for these ads, I don’t receive anything from publishing Around the Block except the satisfaction that my thoughts, ideas and opinions are shared with others. Guess what? The advertising works! Since I’ve began advertising, my reader ship has increased demonstrably. (I guess as a retired ad guy I shouldn’t sound so surprised.) But once in a while ads are rejected for no apparent reason and no explanation. The post is question was rejected. This post you are reading will be submitted for advertising. Hopefully it will be approved. But, it may not. So, there’s a better way to ensure you get Around the Block if you so desire – subscribe. It’s free and easy. Go to my homepage – https://around-the-block.com, scroll down to “Follow Around the Block,” enter your email address and, as it says, “Get new content delivered directly to your inbox.” Thanks for your support.

Then, a day later, election results in three key “red/purple” states ended in important victories for Democratic candidates and issues. In Kentucky, incumbent Democratic governor, Andy Beshear defeated Trump-backed Republican attorney general, Daniel Cameron, 52.5% to 47.5%. In Virginia, where Democrats were worrying that they would not retain their majority in the commonwealth’s Senate, Democrats not only maintained that majority but won a majority in the lower House of Delegates, dealing a sharp loss for Gov. Glenn Youngkin, an up-and-coming GOP heartthrob who exerted a great deal of energy, money and political capital on their effort to secure complete Republican control of state government. And in Ohio, voters approved a constitutional amendment that ensures access to abortion and other forms of reproductive health care, the latest victory for abortion rights supporters since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year.

As one Democratic pundit remarked this morning, “Maybe it’s time for Democrats to stop ‘wetting their beds!'”

Of course, the “glass half empty” in me wasn’t convinced; even though yesterday’s elections were victories, there was one thing missing – these elections were not head-to-head, Biden versus Trump. And that still worries me. So, back to the poll.

I received comments, both on and offline regarding how the poll was worrying, with a lot of anguish about what to do/where to go if Trump is elected. I’ll admit, I am one of those worriers.

But then I got another comment, indirectly, from Robert Reich, in his daily newsletter email. For those who don’t remember him, Robert Reich is an American professor, author, lawyer, and political commentator. He was former secretary of labor in the Clinton administration and has been the Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC Berkeley since January 2006. He was formerly a lecturer at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a professor of social and economic policy at the Heller School for Social Policy and Management of Brandeis University. In 2008, Time magazine named him one of the Ten Best Cabinet Members of the century, and in the same year The Wall Street Journal placed him sixth on its list of Most Influential Business Thinkers.

Here are Robert Reich’s indirect comments to my post:

Friends,

You’re probably as stunned as I am to learn that Biden is now trailing Trump by 4 to 10 points among registered voters in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College.

I want to use today’s letter to reassure you.

First, as I’ve noted before, polls a year before an election are not predictive of outcomes.

Yes, these latest polls are disturbing. I’m appalled that majorities in five key swing states are for Trump. What planet have they been living on? What planet have I been living on? How can it be that majorities in five pivotal states are willing to vote for a person who staged an attempted coup against the United States and is now being tried for four separate state or federal crimes, not to mention civil fraud?

Voters say they trust Trump over President Biden on the economy and foreign policy. But these voters obviously haven’t been paying attention. A year before an election, most voters are not paying attention.

Even before the pandemic — made worse by Trump’s rejection of basic public health protocols — the economy was creating far fewer jobs than it has under Biden’s watch, and the median wage was lower. On foreign policy, Trump coddled Putin, emboldening him to attack Ukraine, and supported anti-democracy movements in Europe.

As I noted recently, Biden is the only adult in the room. He is also the most progressive, labor-friendly president we’ve had since Franklin D. Roosevelt. His legislative record would be judged successful even if he hadn’t had a razor-thin majority in his first two years against the most hostile Republicans in memory.

Many voters don’t see this because Biden doesn’t communicate in ways that today’s media — and many of today’s voters — are able to process. His communications are straightforward. They minimize emotional turbulence. He exudes calm determination.

By contrast, everything Trump says and posts is designed to spur a large emotional reaction. His ridicule, anger, and vindictiveness are intended to elicit immediate, passionate responses.

Trump gives the impression of strength because of the strength of his bile.

When voters tell pollsters they think Trump is “stronger” than Biden on the economy or foreign policy, they’re responding to emotions associated with strength that Trump stirs up — rage, ferocity, vindictiveness, and anger.

On the economy, many voters continue to feel overwhelmed. Because of the Fed’s high interest rates, most people face high finance charges on cars, mortgages, anything they buy on credit. So, Trump’s bile may feel more appropriate than Biden’s tame discussion of economic data.

On foreign policy, many if not most Americans feel anger, fear, betrayal, impatience. Trump’s rage more closely matches those feelings than Biden’s measured diplomacy.

The issue of Biden’s age has become a proxy for all this. Only three years separates Trump from Biden. Trump is evidently more out of shape than Biden. And if you watch and listen to Trump, you’ll find signs of mental deterioration. (His testimony yesterday in the civil fraud lawsuit against him drifted from incoherent rant to rambling digression.)

But Trump’s bile gives him a patina of vigor. His anger appears to show vitality. His vindictiveness makes him seem forceful. We live in an angry time. It is easy for the public to confuse anger with strength. 

Biden projects strength the old-fashioned way — through mature and responsible leadership. But mature and responsible leadership doesn’t cut through the media and reach today’s public.

At least not now. But elections have a way of concentrating the public’s mind. As the 2024 contest draws closer, more Americans will decide they prefer competence to chaos.

I expect more panic among Democrats, who will suggest that Biden pull out of the race and make way for a more “attractive” Democratic candidate.

Rubbish. The reality is that Biden is the only person who has beaten Trump. Biden is the incumbent president with all the advantages of incumbency. Biden has shown himself to be a strong campaigner. There is no one to take his place.

If Biden simply continues to be the adult in the room — governing maturely and responsibly — more of the American public will eventually come around to him, including in the swing states. And the more they see that Trump is increasingly unhinged, they will decide that they’d rather have a competent adult in charge.

So, my advice is not to panic, not to unduly worry. Biden will need to work hard for it, and the rest of us will have to work hard in support of him, but Biden will win in 2024.

Feel better? C’mon, just a little?

As for me, while I didn’t throw out my “Expats Guide to Living Well in Portugal,” I did put it to the bottom of my book pile.