Recommendation on the candidates to support in the most critical races with the highest likelihood of a good return on investment.
As of this writing we are one day short of four weeks until mid-term election day. As ever, many pundits are describing this mid-term as one of the most consequential in memory…aren’t they all? But there are some consequences to this one: If the GOP takes the House, the January 6 committee will be shut down and it might only take until mid-January for Biden impeachment hearings to begin. (Can you say…without breaking out in hives, Speaker of House Kevin McCarthy?) And, if you think the American judicial system is partisan now, just wait to see what happens if Republicans retake the Senate and Mitch McConnell becomes Senate Majority Leader again.
As Larry David might say, “Pretty, pretty, pretty consequential!
I’m sure by now you’re both fed up with political solicitations and, if you’re of a mind to contribute to certain candidates’s campaigns, confused or conflicted regarding which ones might provide the best from a return on investment standpoint. And that’s where I come in.
I’ve done an analysis of ten critical Senate races. I’ve looked at the polls. I’ve looked at the candidates. I’ve made my recommendations. The ten races I picked are the ones that have drawn the most attention and, perhaps, are the most contentious. I’ve not looked at races where there’s really no contest, either on the Democratic or Republican side. My goal, as this campaign winds down and final contribution decisions need to be made, is to provide you with some insight into where you might best spend your money.
Since the analysis is long, rather than include it in the body of this post, I’ve embedded it as a PDF.
But here’s the top line (see the detailed rationale for these recommendations in the PDF). And, just to be clear, all the recommendations are for the Democratic candidate, as you might have guessed:
- Arizona: Democrat Mark Kelly vs. Republican Blake Masters – Kelly: Donation Importance: GOOD; Potential return on donation investment: GOOD
- Florida: Democrat Val Demings vs. Republican Marco Rubio – Demings: Donation Importance: HIGH; Potential return on donation investment: MODEST TO POOR
- Georgia: Democrat Raphael Warnock vs. Republican Herschel Walker – Warnock: Donation Importance: EXTREME; Potential return on donation investment: EXCELLENT
- Iowa: Democrat Mike Franken vs. Republican Chuck Grassley – Franken: Donation Importance: SYMBOLIC; Potential return on donation investment: Bad
- Nevada: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto vs. Republican Adam Laxalt – Cortez Masto: Donation importance: EXTREME Potential return on donation investment: GOOD
- New Hampshire: Democrat Maggie Hassan vs. Republican Donald Bolduc – Hassan: Donation importance: GOOD; Potential return on donation investment: GOOD
- North Carolina: Democrat Cheri Beasley vs. Republican Ted Budd – Beasley: Donation importance: EXTREME Potential return on donation investment: GOOD
- Ohio: Democrat Tim Ryan vs. Republican J.D. Vance – Ryan: Donation importance: EXTREME; Potential return on donation investment: GOOD
- Pennsylvania: Democrat John Fetterman vs. Republican Mehmet Oz – Fetterman: Donation importance: EXTREME; Potential return on donation investment: UNSURE
- Wisconsin: Democrat Mandela Barnes vs. Republican Ron Johnson – Barnes: Donation importance: EXTREME; Potential return on donation investment: GOOD
Hope this helps. I’ll be working on critical House and Governor races in the next few days. As I do, comments and suggestions are appreciated.