Experiences and thoughts from Israel post-October 7th – Part 2

Commentary

“The Day After”

This is the second of three essays by my friend, Mickey Golbus, documenting his recent trip to Israel. I am publishing these essays in Around the Block with his persmission. (In the event you did not see the first post, here is the link to the first essay, “The Hostages.” https://around-the-block.com/2024/02/06/experiences-and-thoughts-from-israel-post-october-7th/

THE DAY AFTER

Israel is in some deep trouble-of its own making. The trouble starts with the right wing, ultra-religious, extremist government put in place by Bibi Netanyahu one year ago.  This government shares some of the blame for Oct. 7^th. Its preoccupation with the West Bank, which many of the cabinet ministers would like to annex to Israel, led to troops being moved from the south area near Gaza to the West Bank. Thus, Hamas could see that there would be little IDF resistance to their Oct. 7^th plans. Not wanting to be bothered with Gaza and Hamas, the cabinet (along with the IDF high staff and intelligence services), chose to ignore clear signs of Hamas preparation. 

The second “sin” of this government regarding Gaza was that the very necessary response has been carried out without a clear plan and goal. The oft stated goal of “removal of Hamas” is clear nonsense since: 1) Hamas is an ideology and ideologies cannot be removed and; 2) there are Hamas cells in both the West Bank and Lebanon that will not disappear because of actions taken in Gaza. This lack of a plan and a goal by Israel’s political arm continues to hamper the IDF in its operations.

There is also a basic problem with the twin goals of bringing home the hostages and making Hamas non-functional (a more realistic statement of the IDF goal). No one, including me, wants to make a choice between these goals, but they are not compatible. Furthering either one inhibits the other. How to resolve this conflict is unclear and tortures the mind of every Israeli.

The third “sin” of this government is neither having nor allowing anyone else to put forth a plan on how to govern Gaza once Hamas is not the functional government. The far-right adherents of Netanyahu’s government will not consider any long-term plan for Gaza, and Bibi cannot go against them without losing his coalition and his job. Holding on to his job is critically important to Netanyau because without it he is likely to be found guilty in his ongoing corruption trial and end up in jail. He also is against anyone else (e.g. United States, Saudia Arabia, Egypt) putting forth any suggestions.

In the absence of an Israeli plan for the day after, bad alternatives are coming to the fore. One such bad alternative has come from Gaza. The IDF has largely withdrawn from northern Gaza (Gaza City) and is concentrated in southern Gaza (Khan Yunis and Rafiah). This has left a vacuum in Gaza City and Hamas has started sending agents in civilian clothes to Gaza City with considerable money. They have begun distributing this money to former police officers and civil servants in small payments. But when you have had no income, the small payment is greatly welcome. Thus, Hamas is trying to re-establish itself as the government of Gaza, undoing everything Israel hoped to accomplish in the last 120 days of war.

A second bad alternative has come from Israel. A far-right, ultra-religious, and messianic coalition held a large (3,000 people) “party” celebrating their solution which is for Israel to occupy Gaza and reestablish settlements there. It is noteworthy that 11 cabinet ministers and 39 (of 120) members of the Kenesset (Israeli parliament) attended. The basis of this solution rests on three premises. First is that prior to 2005, when Israel occupied Gaza and had settlements there (20 settlements with 8-9,000 Israelis), nothing like Oct. 7^th occurred. It is conveniently forgotten that one key reason for the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza was that Israel tired of having its soldiers killed by terrorist incursions on the settlements. Second is a concept in Judaism that says if you make a mistake, you must correct it. Seeing the withdrawal as a mistake, they want the correction to be reoccupation. Third is a messianic cohort who sees the reoccupation as part of the historic path to the messianic age. It is not clear to me why this would be true since ancient Israel never included Gaza; it was held by the Philistines. This proposal is all fantasy, but one that 38% of Israelis say they can support at this time.

The fantasy exists because no real alternative has been proposed. Netanyahu’s government is incapable of providing an alternative. This means it must come from the opposition, which at this time has the support of a significant majority of Israelis. The opposition MUST produce an alternative that can be considered, improved, and solidified as the policy of the country. They cannot wait for elections because in the Israeli system it is difficult to get an early election when the coalition in power wants desperately to hold on to that power. The time for the opposition to act is finite and getting shorter day by day!

Americans will remember that we didn’t have “day after” plan when we engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are still suffering the consequences of that lack of planning. Although I believe that all conflicts should be entered into with a plan for the day after, there is a key difference between the U.S. and Israel regarding the lack of planning. While both were responding to attacks on their homeland, the U.S., not dealing with an existential threat on their doorstep, took time before initiating military action. Because of the nature of the Hamas attack and the proximity of the attackers, Israel had to respond immediately. Saying that doesn’t give Israel a pass; the consequences of not determining a post-war Gaza plan are infinitely more consequential than America’s lack of post-conflict planning.

Mitchell S. Golbus, M.D., is Professor Emeritus, UCSF School of Medicine and resides with his wife in San Rafael.