What does the 137th episode of Seinfeld and the latest Times/Siena poll have in common?

Commentary

They’re both “Bizarro!”

The 137^th episode of Seinfeld, was called “The Bizarro Jerry.” The title is a reference to the Superman character “Bizarro” who does everything in an opposite manner.* As I read the results of the Times/Siena poll of battleground states this morning, the first thing that came to mind was, “What’s the story with the Bizarro battleground states?”

*Ironically, the “B” plot of “The Bizarro Jerry” was “man-hands” (every Seinfeld episode had at least “A” and “B” plots, sometimes even a “C” plot), . Why is that ironic? Think back to 2016 and this from Trump opponent, Marco Rubio about the size of Trump’s hands: “And you know what they say about guys with small hands.”

Let’s see what’s so Bizarro.

Who Would You Vote For?

I wonder if these respondents actually followed the prompt and “thought,” given the astonishing results. Trump is ahead of Biden in the “who would you vote for” question in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+6), Michigan (+5), Nevada (+11) and Pennsylvania (+4). Wisconsin, the only state in which Biden is ahead, his margin is a razor thin +2.

As you’re thinking about how these registered voters’ think, ponder this. Most say they will vote for a man who is facing 91 criminal indictments and has already been found liable of business fraud in New York civil suit; the current courtroom theatrics in New York are to determine the penalty only.

Adhering to the adage, “a picture is worth a thousand words,” consider Trump’s upcoming calendar which had more legal appointments than political ones:

Moving to specific issues, the economy is at the top of the list.

Rating Economic Conditions Today

Unpacking these two charts, 75% or more of the respondents in these states say the economy is fair/poor. And 50% to 60% would trust Trump more than Biden to handle the economy.

Then there are the facts.

As reported in the Los Angeles Times:

The economist Justin Wolfers puts it this way: Suppose you had fallen asleep in August 2019 and didn’t wake up for four years. On awakening, if you were an economist, the first thing you’d want to know is what the latest data show.

You’d be happily surprised: Unemployment, which was at a historic low when you fell asleep, has remained near that point — 3.8% in September. The economy has grown significantly, even adjusting for inflation, meaning the country has gotten richer. And perhaps most surprisingly, for the first time since before the Great Recession, income distribution has become a bit more equal as the biggest gains have gone to low-wage workers.

In all, you would find that the economy was doing better than most of your colleagues in 2019 had predicted.

“You would wonder what really good thing had happened while you were sleeping,” said Wolfers, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy.

In fact, of course, you would have slept through a vast social trauma brought on by a worldwide plague, accompanied by a short, but very steep, recession. That makes the good economic numbers all the more impressive.

That’s not the entire picture, of course: A wave of price increases has washed through the economy since 2021, peaking in the summer of 2022. and leading the Federal Reserve to sharply increase interest rates. At this point, however, inflation has subsided. The rate the Fed watches most closely now sits just slightly above 3% — higher than the central bank’s 2% target, but not alarmingly so.

“The economy is good. Full stop,” says Wolfers. “That’s the story.”

So why this chasm between the facts and the polls?

The LA Times continues:

Several theories try to explain the radical gap between the polls and the economic statistics.

One focuses on time lags. Perhaps in another few months, as Americans adjust to lower inflation and higher wages, polls will start pointing upward, that theory suggests.

A second notes that although inflation has slowed, prices remain higher than people were used to. Perhaps it’s the price level, not the rate of increase, that’s weighting down opinions.

“The price of groceries and gas and other things people see and buy day to day is still a shock, even if inflation has slowed. Obviously it hasn’t reversed the increases or even completely stopped them, just slowed their growth,” noted Lanae Erickson, senior vice president of Third Way, a Washington-based Democratic think tank.

Another line of thinking, heard from many Democrats, is that news organizations have colored public opinion by focusing on bad news.

There’s clearly something to that. Conservative media, in particular, has pounded on signs of inflation. But the media’s bias toward bad news has been around for a long time. The disconnect between the polls and the economic numbers is new.*

*Just to put this in perspective, according to the AAA, the national average price/gallon of gasoline as of this writing is $3.44 is 37 cents less than a month ago and 32 cents less than a year ago. Here in South Florida, prices are hovering close to $3.00/gallon. Why is it that we only hear about gas prices rising, not falling?

A fourth possibility, more troubling for public opinion research, is that when people respond to questions about the economy, they’re now more likely to be posturing than saying what they really think about financial conditions.

Although one might say, quoting James Carville who invented the phrase, “It’s the economy stupid,” in 1992, which helped Bill Clinton defeat George H.W. Bush, that the economy is the most important issue in a presidential election, there are others.

Here’s what the Times/Siena poll reports about those others.

National Security

Discounting Wisconsin, which is a tie (is it time to become a “Cheesehead?”), Trump beats Biden by an average +15 points. This is the same Donald Trump who expressed that he’s in love with North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un, believed the words of Russian president/dictator Vladimir Putin over his own national security experts and longs to be president for life like his Chinese hero, Xi Jinping

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Removing the Wisconsin outlier (Trump only +3) in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump is trusted by an average of +13 points over Biden. This is the same Donald Trump who called the terrorists who perpetrated the horrific attack on Israel “hummus,” like the dip, and called Hezbollah “smart,” while criticizing his former “heart throb,” Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu for being unprepared (full disclosure: that might be the only thing with which I’ll ever agree with Donald Trump).

I’ll leave it to you to review, analyze and opine on some of the other findings of this Times/Siena poll: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/06/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html

So, I’ll close with this.

The Washington Post reported today in a story headlined, “Trump and allies plot revenge, Justice Department control in a second term,”

Donald Trump and his allies have begun mapping out specific plans for using the federal government to punish critics and opponents should he win a second term, with the former president naming individuals he wants to investigate or prosecute and his associates drafting plans to potentially invoke the Insurrection Act on his first day in office to allow him to deploy the military against civil demonstrations.

Much of the planning for a second term has been unofficially outsourced to a partnership of right-wing think tanks in Washington. Dubbed “Project 2025,” the group is developing a plan, to include draft executive orders, that would deploy the military domestically under the Insurrection Act, according to a person involved in those conversations and internal communications reviewed by The Washington Post. The law, last updated in 1871, authorizes the president to deploy the military for domestic law enforcement.

Which led Ian Bassin, the executive director of Protect America, a cross-ideological nonprofit group dedicated to defeating the authoritarian threat, building more resilient democratic institutions, and protecting our freedom and liberal democracy to write:

Let’s call this what it is: Trump is planning a military dictatorship. This is radical stuff that would end America as we know it. It must lead every newscast until every voter fully understand what it is.

Bassin suggests that what Trump is planning is “the nightmare scenario.”

Do you think the folks who responded to the battleground states survey are aware of the nightmare they’re supporting?

I think there’s a better chance that “Bizarro battleground states” will turn into “Bizarro America!”

I’m not sure there can be any greater nightmare!